LAS VEGAS — When it comes to setting the point spread, especially for the Super Bowl, various factors come into play. However, for Super Bowl LVIII, there's a fundamental factor that stands out: the San Francisco 49ers are favored over the Kansas City Chiefs because oddsmakers consider them the superior team.
The question arises: Do you rely more on recent performances or on the entire season's performance when making your pick for the Super Bowl?
Over the past five months, the 49ers have showcased their superiority. The Chiefs faced challenges, losing six games and finishing 9-6 after a home defeat to the Las Vegas Raiders. Despite their struggles, they clinched the AFC West title, though offensive issues plagued them throughout the season.
Conversely, for much of the season, the 49ers were hailed as one of the NFL's top teams. However, a setback against the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas dampened their dominance. In the playoffs, they had to stage second-half comebacks to secure victories against the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions, suggesting a slight decline in form.
In contrast, the Chiefs have hit their stride in the playoffs, securing impressive wins against the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, and Baltimore Ravens, with the latter two victories achieved on the road. Patrick Mahomes' stellar performances have propelled them to another Super Bowl appearance, overshadowing the issues they faced during the regular season.
While a Chiefs victory wouldn't be unprecedented for a team that peaked at the right time, it's challenging to argue that they've been the best team this NFL season. Despite possessing the best player and arguably the best coach, the Chiefs had their flaws during much of the season.
Despite the 49ers being favored by 2 points in the Super Bowl, many, including most of our Yahoo Sports crew, are leaning towards the underdog Chiefs due to recency bias. Although the 49ers have a more impressive body of work, the influx of money on the Chiefs suggests that the odds may not favor Kansas City backers in the end.
Ultimately, the pick for the final game of this NFL season is the 49ers -2. Additionally, predictions include under 47.5 points, Christian McCaffrey for MVP at +450, with a lesser bet on Deebo Samuel for MVP at 25-to-1. Furthermore, it's anticipated that Isiah Pacheco will surpass 16.5 rushing attempts while falling short of 17.5 receiving yards.
Despite the formidable challenge posed by Mahomes, the 49ers boast a stronger team overall.